L' economia, una scienza a cavallo

L' economia è una scienza?

Probabilmente sì, ma bisogna guardare alla biologia più che alla fisica.

By biology, I do not mean the study of the human cell, which we have made a great deal of progress understanding though there is more to learn. I am thinking of biology in the sense of an ecosystem where competition and emergent order create a complex interaction of organisms and their environment. That sounds a lot like economics and of course it is. But we would never ask of biologists what the public and media ask of economists. We do not expect a biologist to forecast how many squirrels will be alive in ten years if we increase the number of trees in the United States by 20%. A biologist would laugh at you. But that is what people ask of economists all the time. Economists should be honest and say that the tasks they are often asked to do are outside the scope of economics as we know it and perhaps outside the scope of economics as it will ever be known

http://cafehayek.com/2011/01/what-is-economics-good-for.html

Puo' essere utile a questo punto vagliare la distinzione tra problemi complessi e problemi complicati.

We treat complex things as if they were merely complicated... distinguished between complicated systems, which can be modeled mathematically, and complex systems, for which there is no mathematical model which can say, if X is the situation then do Y. Sustainability, healthy communities, raising families have all been given as examples of such complex systems and processes. Peacebuilding would be another, women's empowerment, natural resource management, capacity building initiatives, innovation systems, the list goes on and on. Complexity science pulls back the curtain on these processes and it can force you to think about the world you live in in a different way.

http://denniswhittle.blogspot.com/2011/01/ben-ramalingam-on-complexity-and-aid.html

Direi che un problema è complicato quando è sensato dedicarsi ad approntare una soluzione, quando cioè in teoria basta una mente (dotata di un modello). Magari una mente con forte potenza di calcolo, un super pc.

La soluzione di un problema complesso (esempio: come costruire una matita e renderla disponibile quando serve) è invece casuale ed implica l' intervento di una moltitudine di menti.

Il guaio dei problemi economici è che probabilmente sono a cavallo della mobile soglia tra complicato e complesso. Per i primi ha senso elaborare un modello, per i secondi ha senso solo seguire un indirizzo: decentrare le decisioni e moltiplicare le menti in campo.